Sweden voted. Election night gave us a result. But Sweden isn’t finished counting yet.
And with just three parliamentary seats currently separating the country’s two political sides, the votes still to be included suddenly matter quite a lot.
Preliminary results from Sunday’s election currently put the opposition parties led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing bloc, with the two sides projected to take 176 and 173 seats respectively in Sweden’s 349-seat parliament, according to Reuters.
That would give Andersson’s side a majority. But there is one rather important detail: the result isn’t final.
In fact, the Swedish Election Authority expects close to 300,000 advance and overseas votes to be involved in the next stage of the preliminary count.
So, who actually won?
For now, the answer is: Andersson’s side is ahead. But Sweden doesn’t know the final result yet.
And even if her lead holds, that doesn’t automatically make Magdalena Andersson prime minister. Here’s what happens next.
First Things First: Sweden Isn’t Finished Counting
If you went to bed on election night thinking the whole thing was settled, you weren’t alone. But the numbers reported that evening were preliminary.
On Wednesday, September 16, Sweden’s municipal election committees conduct what’s known as the uppsamlingsräkning, essentially a supplementary preliminary count.
This includes advance votes that didn’t reach the appropriate polling station in time to be counted on election night, votes cast in advance in a voter’s own municipality on election day, and late-arriving votes from abroad.
And this year, there are quite a few.
The Swedish Election Authority estimates that close to 300,000 votes will be involved, considerably more than in previous elections. Because of the unusually large number, the authority now expects an updated preliminary result for the Riksdag on Thursday.
At the same time, the final count is already underway. Votes are counted again by Sweden’s county administrative boards before the final distribution of seats is determined. The Swedish Election Authority explains that all votes are counted twice before the result is finalized.
So those 176–173 numbers you’ve been seeing? They’re important. But they’re not final.
So, Who’s Winning?
Right now, Magdalena Andersson’s side is ahead.
The preliminary parliamentary numbers currently project 176 seats for the Andersson-led opposition and 173 for the parties on Kristersson’s side. With 349 seats in the Riksdag, 175 represents a majority.
But even describing Andersson’s side simply as “the left” isn’t entirely accurate.
The opposition grouping consists of the Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party and Centre Party. The Centre Party is a liberal centrist party rather than a traditional party of the left, which is why “Andersson-led opposition” is a more useful description.
And just because those parties currently sit on the same side of the parliamentary arithmetic doesn’t mean they agree on everything. Far from it.
There are significant differences between them on issues including taxation, migration and energy policy. Reuters reports that those divisions could complicate Andersson’s path to forming a government.
In other words, her side may be winning the arithmetic. Then comes the politics.
Wait… Swedes Don’t Actually Vote for Prime Minister?
No. And this is probably the most important thing to understand about what happens next.
Swedish voters elect the 349 members of the Riksdag. They don’t directly elect Sweden’s prime minister. It’s ultimately the Riksdag that determines who can become prime minister.
So Sunday’s election wasn’t technically a presidential-style contest between Magdalena Andersson and Ulf Kristersson, even if the campaign sometimes felt like one.
And there’s another very Swedish twist.
A candidate for prime minister doesn’t actually need 175 MPs to vote for them. They need to avoid having 175 MPs vote against them.
It’s called negative parliamentarism.
Under Sweden’s system, the Speaker’s nominee for prime minister is rejected only if more than half of the Riksdag’s 349 members vote against the proposal. Otherwise, the candidate is approved, as explained by the Swedish Parliament.
It sounds like a small technical distinction. Over the next few weeks, it could be an extremely important one.
What Happens to Ulf Kristersson Now?
For the moment, Ulf Kristersson is still Sweden’s prime minister. An election does not automatically remove the sitting government.
Kristersson can look at the preliminary result, conclude that his government no longer has sufficient parliamentary support and choose to resign. If he does, the Speaker begins the process of finding someone capable of forming a new government.
Given the current numbers, Magdalena Andersson would be in the strongest position to try.
But Kristersson can also choose to stay.
If he does, the newly elected Riksdag must vote on whether he can remain prime minister. According to the Riksdag’s official post-election guidance, such a vote could take place September 29 at the earliest.
If 175 or more members vote against him, he must go. Then the process of forming a new government begins.
Enter: The Speaker
This is where one of the less glamorous but suddenly very powerful figures in Swedish politics enters the picture: the Speaker of the Riksdag, or talmannen.
If Sweden needs a new prime minister, the Speaker meets with the party leaders and tries to determine who has the best chance of forming a government that parliament will accept. The Speaker then proposes a candidate and the Riksdag votes.
If 175 or more members vote against the nominee, the proposal fails. Otherwise, the candidate is approved as prime minister.
And if the first candidate fails? Back to the drawing board.
The Speaker gets four attempts. If all four proposals fail, an extraordinary election must be held within three months, according to the Riksdag’s guide to forming a government.
Before anyone starts preparing to head back to the polls, though, extraordinary elections are exceedingly rare in Sweden.
So When Could Sweden Get a New Prime Minister?
There isn’t a definitive date.
First, Sweden needs to finish counting. Then comes the question of what Kristersson decides to do.
And if Andersson is eventually given the opportunity to form a government, she still needs to navigate the considerable political differences between the parties whose parliamentary support she would depend on.
Remember negative parliamentarism? This is where it matters.
Andersson doesn’t necessarily need every potential ally enthusiastically voting for her. She needs to make sure a majority doesn’t vote against her.
Very Swedish indeed.
And What About the Sweden Democrats?
One of the other big stories from election night was the setback suffered by the Sweden Democrats.
Preliminary results put the party at around 17.6 percent of the vote, down roughly three percentage points from the previous election. If confirmed, it would mark the party’s first decline in a parliamentary election since entering the Riksdag in 2010, according to Reuters.
That’s particularly notable because the Sweden Democrats entered this election pushing for something they hadn’t previously achieved: seats around the cabinet table in a Kristersson-led government.
Instead, Sweden may now be heading toward a change of government altogether. But, just like everything else right now, that depends on what the final count actually says.
So… Who Actually Won?
As of September 15, the most accurate answer is: we don’t know for certain yet.
Magdalena Andersson’s opposition is currently ahead, with the preliminary parliamentary numbers at 176 seats to 173.
But close to 300,000 advance and overseas votes are expected to be involved in Wednesday’s supplementary count, and the Swedish Election Authority doesn’t expect the updated preliminary Riksdag result until Thursday.
And even once Sweden has a final election result, that still won’t necessarily tell us immediately who the next prime minister will be.
Because Swedes didn’t elect a prime minister on Sunday. They elected a new Riksdag.
Now comes the very Swedish business of figuring out who can actually govern it.
And if the current numbers hold, Magdalena Andersson will be in the strongest position to try.
This article was last updated on September 15, 2026. Sweden’s vote count remains underway and the parliamentary result is preliminary.
